And while the number of days until May 22, when the deadline for reaching an agreement on the sale of NIS expires, decreases, the uncertainty regarding the resolution of this months-long saga grows. According to the latest information, Serbia sent a proposal for an agreement to the Hungarian MOL this weekend. It expects answers from them tomorrow. The stumbling block, as is already known, is the operating capacity of the refinery in Pančevo.
At the same time, the finalization of the agreement between the current majority shareholder of NIS, the Russian company Gazprom, and MOL is taking place, or at least it should be. However, György Bácsa, Executive Director for Strategy of the MOL Group, did not answer the question of what the percentage probability is that an agreement will be reached by May 22, which OFAC designated as D-Day.
He stated at the Euronews Serbia Business Forum that negotiations are being conducted on three “fronts.” But also that they are in a critical phase precisely due to the fact that less than a week remains.
Negotiations in a critical phase
“We have three teams actively working on this process. This requires time even under normal circumstances. And we now have seven days to make important decisions.”
Nevertheless, he hinted that he is optimistic regarding a possible extension of the deadline. “American practice shows that if progress is made by May 22, a ‘reasonable deadline’ can be expected for the actual realization. This is not a race where the stopwatch will just stop. This is an exam that all subjects must pass. For MOL, the most important thing is to make a good and sustainable agreement.”
Bácsa, therefore, confirmed that negotiations at all levels are underway. On the other hand, at least in Serbia, the last week was marked by a small “influx” of potential buyers. First, out of nowhere, the Reuters agency published information that a company of questionable capital and even more questionable owner, Ranko Mimović, is offering two billion euros for NIS. Shortly thereafter, Bogoljub Karić, who, unlike Mimović, is more than well-known to the public, joined “the race.”
He too, as he said, would like to buy NIS, and he informed the President of Russia and the President of Serbia about this.
Influx of bidders
Forbes Serbia, meanwhile, received unofficial information that there are at least three more interested buyers. And foreign ones at that. One of those interested is one of the richest Slovenians. Also, two interested companies are from Germany and Switzerland. Their offers are, as we learn, far less than these two billion euros offered by Mimović and Karić, but also far more serious. If for no other reason, then due to the fact that these are companies operating in the field of energy and the oil industry.
Following these leads, we contacted the mentioned companies and the businessman from Slovenia for confirmation. We asked them if they are interested in buying the Russian stake in NIS, how much they estimate that stake is worth, and what their management strategy for this company would be. However, by the time of publication of the text, we did not receive any answers. Neither a confirmation nor a denial of their interest in buying the majority package of shares.
Analysts with whom we spoke about this say that if it is true that there are several interested companies for NIS, it could mean that there is a lack of faith in reaching an agreement between Gazprom and MOL.
It is also not impossible that information about potential buyers is coming from the “domestic kitchen.” With the reason to exert pressure on MOL in this way to yield in negotiations with Serbia regarding the future agreement on defining the rights and obligations of the two future co-owners. This refers, of course, to the Hungarian MOL and Serbia as the minority owner.
Who is releasing trial balloons
Likewise, it is not impossible that “trial balloons” are also being released by the Russian side. It is well known, namely, that Gazprom does not want to sell the majority package of shares in NIS and that it has been forced to do so from day one due to sanctions.
Forbes Serbia also sent questions to the American OFAC in order to check if it is true that Ranko Mimović approached them and that he received an agreement in principle from them for the purchase, as Mimović claimed to the BBC in Serbian. They, however, did not send any response by the time of publication of this text either.
Our interlocutors believe that MOL is still in the game to buy the majority package of shares, but that obviously all parties are currently trying to extract as much as possible for themselves. And hence so much speculation and a “flood” of potential buyers as May 22 approaches.
In the case of MOL, this would mean paying as little as possible for the NIS shares, but also getting the best possible deal in agreement with Serbia. In the sense of taking on as few obligations as possible regarding future business operations and decision-making.
In the case of Serbia, however, the situation is reversed. It must ensure that the refinery operates at full capacity, as its economy depends heavily on it. But also to “force” MOL into some additional obligations in order to preserve oil security.
Gazprom, on the other hand, wants to get another postponement of the deadline for finalization, in order to eventually achieve the lifting of sanctions, which would allow it to retain ownership in NIS.
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Source: N1, Photo: Naftna Industrija Srbije