George H. W. Bush and Gulf War, Bill Clinton and NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, George W. Bush and Iraq War — will Donald Trump remain written in the history books through the action Epic Rage in Iran?
Air strikes by the American and Israeli military on Iran and the killing of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have ignited a new powder keg in the Middle East.
The Iranians responded with attacks on American bases across the region, Israel, as well as other targets in countries of the Middle East.
On March 3, the American president said the action could last four to five weeks, but that the US has weapons stockpiles to “fight forever.”
While rockets and drones tear through the skies above the Middle East, among many other issues, the question is also opening as to what kind of military conflict this could develop into and how it might end.
“This is a preventive war whose goal is to prevent the development of weapons or other types of threats that Iran could pose.
“And in the ethics of war, preventive war is considered prohibited,” John Arquilla, a military analyst and former adviser to General Norman Schwarzkopf during the Gulf War and to Donald Rumsfeld, the US secretary of defense, told BBC in Serbian.
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Rumsfeld, the so-called architect of the war in Iraq in 2003, held the position during the presidency of George W. Bush and was considered the main advocate of the “war on terror” after the attacks on September 11 attacks in New York City and Washington, D.C. in 2001.
The current Trump administration accuses Iran of trying to develop a dangerous nuclear program, while the authorities in Iran claimed that it was doing so exclusively for scientific purposes.
Since the latest conflict began, Trump has called on the people of Iran who opposed the ayatollah to take power in the country where thousands of people were killed during anti-government demonstrations in January.
In the American-Israeli attacks so far, a number of bases of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), military airports, air defenses and ballistic missile launchers have been destroyed.
Typical for these kinds of air campaigns is the “swarm” tactic — simultaneous strikes on many, many different locations, Arquilla explains.
“Tactically speaking the US is carrying this out quite efficiently, and Iran has few possibilities for air defense.
“They have inflicted many blows on a relatively helpless opponent,” says Arquilla, emphasizing that this is his personal assessment.
In the course of the conflict so far, six American soldiers have been killed, and Trump and Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, warned that there could be more casualties in the coming days.
According to data from the local Red Crescent, nearly 800 people have been killed in Iran, but it is not known how many were military casualties.
Similarities and differences with Kosovo in 1999.
For the action against Iran, Trump did not seek approval from United States Congress, which drew criticism from supporters of the opposition Democratic Party.
At the same time, the latest conflict has led to comparisons with similar decisions by previous American administrations.
“As far as the military operations themselves are concerned, the greatest similarity is with Kosovo, when Serbia was bombed for 78 days, in the hope that Serbian forces would withdraw, while at the same time undermining the regime of Slobodan Milošević,” Arquilla assesses.
The military operation of the NATO began on March 24, 1999, and the reason for the intervention was the persecution of Albanians in Kosovo carried out by the security forces of Serbia.
“The effectiveness of the air campaign then was far smaller, much less damage was inflicted on the forces of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and Milošević remained in power for another year,” adds the American analyst who at the time worked at the United States Department of Defense.
In addition to the military aspect and the issue of respect for international law, the dilemma of the long-term effects of this kind of action by the US and Israel against Iran is also opening.
Continuing the comparison with the NATO action in Kosovo in 1999, Arquilla sees similarity in the fact that in Iran there is, as he says, a significant number of residents who are opponents of the government.
“Most people in Kosovo wanted Serbian forces to leave, and there were also many opponents of Milošević in Serbia itself.”
A farmer continues working as NATO bombs Yugoslavia, 1999. pic.twitter.com/VvxWH8Ouqj
— Yugoslavian Visuals (@YugoslavVisuals) January 30, 2026
But the question is whether anti-regime elements in Iran will be able to use this opportunity to overthrow the theocrats.
“The government in Iran is much more than the ayatollah and several military leaders — they have hundreds of thousands of hard-line supporters,” believes Arquilla, today an associate professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California.
The conflict in the Middle East, as well as the previous war between Ukraine and Russia, has brought a new type of warfare in which drones are used massively.
During Operation Desert Storm and the First Gulf War in 1991, in which allies led by the United States clashed with Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, 90 percent of bombs and projectiles were unguided.
“Now that is not the case, and alongside the development of guided missiles and drones, air defenses have also advanced,” Arquilla said.
Israel has the Iron Dome system which has shot down a large number of enemy projectiles.
“If we look at the war in Ukraine, we see that the Russians have great difficulties in using air power.”
🧵THREAD: On March 24, 1999, NATO began illegally bombing Yugoslavia for 78 days without the approval of the United Nations, dropping more than 28,000 bombs, including depleted uranium and cluster munitions, killing over 2000 civilians and displacing more than 250,000 people. pic.twitter.com/UC7iiFe3IU
— KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) May 3, 2023
Will ground troops become involved?
The use of American ground troops in the Epic Rage operation is one of the elements that seems inevitable when talking about the end of the conflict.
How realistic that is — that is another aspect, because the last time the American army massively entered a foreign country was during the invasion of Iraq.
Around 4,500 American soldiers were killed during Operation Iraqi Freedom, according to data from the United States Department of Defense.
Will ground troops become involved?
The use of American ground troops in the Epic Rage operation is one of the elements that seems inevitable when talking about the end of the conflict.
How realistic that is — that is another aspect, because the last time the American army massively entered a foreign country was during the invasion of Iraq.
Around 4,500 American soldiers were killed during Operation Iraqi Freedom, according to data from the United States Department of Defense.
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Source: BBC; Foto: Wikimedia Creative Commons, BBC, Arab Center Washington