Following the news of the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the question has arisen as to who could take the helm of the country and whether the theocracy will remain.
Reuters recalls that Iran’s Supreme Leader must be a religious authority under Iran’s “velayat-e faqih” system. This refers to the supreme expert in “God’s law.”
The theory dictates that, until the return of the 12th Shiite Imam, who disappeared in the 9th century, authority on earth should be exercised by a distinguished religious authority.
Under Khamenei and his predecessor, the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Supreme Leader has the final say in all state matters, but the system has never before faced such a challenge.
Khamenei’s power was often exercised through close advisers. But after Saturday’s attacks, it is unclear how many of those senior officials survived.
Khamenei (86) never publicly named a successor, and it is unclear who could replace him if his death is confirmed.
His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has sometimes been seen as a possible candidate, but his fate is also uncertain.
The grandson of his predecessor, Hassan Khomeini, has also been mentioned, as have some senior high-ranking religious authorities.
None of the remaining figures has Khamenei’s stature and influence, and any successor could struggle to dominate powerful interest groups such as the Revolutionary Guard or the supreme religious councils.
WILL IRAN’S THEOCRACY REMAIN?
Iran’s religious elite controls powerful bodies that extend their influence throughout the political system.
The Assembly of Experts, composed of senior ayatollahs elected for eight-year terms, is the body that appoints the Supreme Leader.
The constitution also grants it the power to question and even dismiss the leader, but that has never happened.
In practice, the choice would likely be made by the most senior officials of the Islamic Republic and then approved by the Assembly of Experts.
But with confirmation that some leading Revolutionary Guard officials are dead, it is unclear who could influence the decision.
The Guardian Council – half appointed by the leader and half by the head of the judiciary – can veto laws passed by parliament and disqualify candidates in elections, which has been used to block potential critics of Khamenei.
Iran follows a Shiite interpretation of Islamic sharia law, and its judges are also religious authorities under the head of the judiciary appointed by Khamenei.
The current head, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, was sanctioned by Western countries for violently suppressing protests in 2009, when he was intelligence minister.
Among other influential religious leaders are former judiciary chief Sadeq Larijani, brother of Khamenei adviser Ali Larijani; Assembly of Experts member Mohsen Araki; and Tehran’s Friday prayer leader, Ahmad Khatami.
WHAT ROLE COULD THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD PLAY?
Unlike the regular army, which falls under the Defense Ministry in the elected government, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) answers directly to the Supreme Leader.
Its commander Mohammad Pakpour was killed on Saturday, three sources familiar with the situation said.
Formed shortly after the revolution, the IRGC’s role in defending the Islamic system expanded significantly during the war with Iraq (1980–1988) and it is now the strongest and best-equipped branch of Iran’s armed forces.
Over the decades, the Guard has expanded its influence through politics and business, strengthening its power at home and abroad.
The Quds Force, an elite unit of the Guard, led Iran’s regional strategy of supporting Shiite groups in the Middle East, particularly in Lebanon and Iraq.
That strategy was severely hit by the U.S. assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020 in Iraq and Israeli attacks on Lebanon’s Hezbollah in 2024.
The Basij militia, a paramilitary force under the Guard’s control, is often used to suppress protests within Iran.
Since the early 2000s, the Guard’s economic power has grown through the construction firm Khatam al-Anbiya, which has secured projects worth billions of dollars in Iran’s oil and gas sector.
The targeted nature of Israeli strikes on senior Guard commanders raises questions about possible Western influence within the upper ranks of the corps.
Nevertheless, the corps is likely to play a key role in the future of the Islamic Republic.
WHY DOES IRAN HOLD ELECTIONS?
Iranians elect a president and parliament to four-year terms. The president appoints a government that manages day-to-day policy within the parameters allowed by the Supreme Leader.
During the early years of the Islamic Republic, voting attracted massive participation. But candidate restrictions by the Guardian Council, the disputed 2009 election outcome and the dominance of unelected parts of the state have undermined confidence in the electoral process.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, seen as a moderate, was elected in 2024, defeating a hardline rival.
Israel said he was also targeted in Saturday’s attacks, but there was no confirmation of his status later in the day.
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Source: Nedeljnik, Foto: EPA-EFE / CHRISTIAN BRUNA