A recent survey conducted by the company Valikon in four Western Balkan countries shows that citizens’ opinions on the potential winner of the upcoming US presidential election are divided. In addition, there are differences in the perception of the impact of these elections on international relations, primarily the European Union.
The 2024 US presidential election will be held in early November, and the main candidates are Donald Trump from the Republican Party and Kamala Harris from the Democratic Party. This election cycle attracts global attention due to the significant impact that the outcome can have on US domestic and foreign policy.
In BiH, there is no clear favorite, while Kamala Harris enjoys significant support in Croatia, and Trump in Serbia According to the conducted survey, Kamala Harris enjoys the greatest support in Croatia, where 56% of citizens would like to see her as President of the United States. There is also strong support for the Democratic candidate in Slovenia – 46% would rather see Kamala Harris as the next president compared to Donald Trump whose support is not negligible and amounts to approximately 30%. Citizens of BiH have a divided opinion where a third of the BiH population would equally like to see Kamala Harris, but also Donald Trump at the helm of the White House. The remaining third of citizens are undecided or the result of the US elections is not important to them. However, looking at the entity level, Kamala Harris enjoys much greater support in the Federation of BiH, while the citizens of Republika Srpska are predominantly with Donald Trump and would like to see him as the next US president. On the other hand, Donald Trump has by far the greatest support in Serbia, where almost half of the citizens would rather see him at the head of America, while Kamala Harris has the least support compared to other countries (13%). However, there is also the largest percentage of undecided voters in Serbia (38%), which suggests that Serbian citizens are not sure about their favorites in the US elections or that the winner is not important to them.
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A quarter of BiH citizens believe that a possible victory for Donald Trump would negatively affect BiH
When it comes to expectations regarding US foreign policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina after the elections, the results show clear differences depending on the candidate. Thus, the majority of citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina (71%) believe that US policy towards BiH will remain unchanged if the Democratic Party candidate (Kamala Harris) wins, while 18% believe that relations could deteriorate with Harris’s victory. Only 10% expect an improvement in relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina. On the other hand, regarding Donald Trump’s victory, the perceptions are different. A significant number of citizens of BiH (26%) believe that Trump’s victory could worsen US relations with BiH, while the majority (57%) believe that the policy will remain unchanged. However, 17% of citizens, predominantly from the Republika Srpska area, see the possibility of improving relations in the event of Trump’s victory.
Trump’s eventual victory could significantly change US policy towards the EU
The survey also examined perceptions of how the victory of one of the candidates would affect the foreign policy of the United States towards the European Union. Thus, when it comes to Kamala Harris, most citizens of the region believe that US policy towards the EU will remain the same, which is somewhat expected given the Democratic Party’s rule in the US in the last four years. On the other hand, Donald Trump’s victory could significantly affect the change in US foreign policy. EU citizens, especially Croats, more than half of them, believe that with Trump’s eventual victory, US policy towards the EU will deteriorate. Slovenes have a similar opinion, while Serbian citizens, about 20%, equally believe that there will be a change in policy, either for the worse or for the better.
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Izvor: Nova.rs
Foto: EPA-EFE