COLUMN, KOVAČEVIĆ: What are Russians to us, maternal brothers or a power that uses us when and how it suits them?

The latest statement by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), claiming that the European Union is behind the “unrest in Serbia” and that the anniversary of the collapse of the canopy on November 1 will be used to complete a “Serbian Maidan,” might have sounded serious to someone, if it weren’t for the dramatic events that unfolded in Russia itself around the same time it was published.

Namely, hundreds of Ukrainian drones carried out a landing and blew up facilities in Russia’s second-largest refinery, while the aforementioned service, otherwise tasked with defending Russia from external enemies, failed to predict or prevent it, obviously due to a lack of timely and accurate information.

That very same service, surprise surprise, a month and a half earlier already knew for sure that a “new Maidan” would take place in Serbia.

Does that mean that Russian spies are better informed about what is being prepared in Belgrade than about the plans being forged in Kyiv?

I seriously doubt it.

A Russian bow for Serbian ears

It is far more likely that the authorities in Belgrade ordered and, through intermediaries—most likely one of Vučić’s advisers close to Russian intelligence circles—paid dearly for the statement, which has little to do with reason or reality. Then the Russian security officers and their editors tailored it to satisfy the motives of the commissioner, repeating the hollow story of the “color revolution,” but this time wrapped with a Russian bow, mentioning the Ukrainian Maidan as a domestic synonym for a coup d’état financed by the West.

Thus formulated, the statement was initially supposed to create the illusion that Russians and their intelligence agents are truly seriously dealing with Serbia, even though they are not, while the Russian service took the opportunity to send a message to two other addresses, certainly more important to them than Belgrade, Vučić, and the Serbs.

The first is the domestic public (hence the mention of Maidan), since Putin uses every opportunity to serve the war-weary Russian people the story that every revolution in the former communist states is financed by the West. That was the case in Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Chechnya (until they managed to establish control through Kadyrov Sr.), and so Serbia perfectly fit into that narrative, like music to the ears of the average United Russia voter.

The second address is the collective West, to which Moscow sends the message that it still pulls some strings in Belgrade, while at the same time once again placing Vučić in an awkward position of having to explain to his Western mentors that he is not a Russian player and “Putin’s little deckhand.”

A win-win combination

For the Russian authorities, therefore, this statement was a win-win combination. Middlemen, intermediaries, and corrupt officials who executed it filled their pockets, and the story was constructed in a way that directed the flow toward the Kremlin’s mill. Putin the wolf full, and all the dogs accounted for.

Incidentally, the seriousness of the statement is best illustrated by the fact that two Kremlin media Cerberuses, Peskov and Zakharova, did not even comment on it. Not a word. And why would they?

Vladimir Vladimirovich is, of course, aware that the SVR, as well as some other Russian civil and military services, is a hotbed of corruption and racketeering, but due to the war circumstances he clearly has no time to deal with those, at this moment, peripheral problems.

In such an environment, paper endures everything, statements are sold complete with a seal, and for the right sum you can even get a medal or arrange an official visit to Moscow, if you happen to need it to boost your rating in your home country.

But those are Russian themes and dilemmas. Let us turn to what concerns and troubles us…

Does Putin love Vučić more than Porfirije?

The Serbian public and people rightly wonder, ever since that scandalous address by Porfirije on the Kremlin couch: Does Putin and the Russian government really support and love Vučić as much as the Serbian patriarch does? And do they really think that students are prominent figures and mercenaries of Brussels, Berlin, and London centers of power?

The answer is: NO!

The Russian security services, which with the installation of that pseudo-firefighting center in Niš also received their official headquarters in Serbia, have more than enough resources, agents, and informants to create a clear picture of what is happening. After all, you don’t need any serious spy work for that—just follow the media for a few days and it will be clear to anyone, even the dumbest agent.

So the Russians know very well that student protests are not organized by Western services (although they would dearly love them to be), they know that Vučić’s government is corrupt, arrogant, and largely instrumentalized by Western governments and intelligence circles, and I believe they can clearly assess that the days of such a government are numbered.

So why then do they blow wind into the sails of Vučić’s regime with meaningless statements like this last one, or the recent statement by the Russian ambassador in Belgrade?

Apart from the fact that in both cases it is paid advertising, the fact that the Kremlin allows such excursions to its services and officials reveals only that, at this moment, it simply suits them.

COLUMN, KOVAČEVIĆ: What is Kosovo to Serbs today, how much does it hurt them, and how much do they not care about it?

How Putin prevents and delays his own “Maidan” with the Serbian one

Specifically, at this moment it suits Putin perfectly to continue brainwashing the domestic public, exhausted by three years of war that have brought the average Russian nothing good (just look at how many refugees you see in Belgrade), with stories about the evil West going around Europe corrupting nations to change governments.

Putin does this for a very practical reason—to prevent Moscow from experiencing what Vučić has experienced in Belgrade, with 350,000 (or maybe more) angry citizens and youth pouring into the streets. Therefore, it is not a bad idea to prepare the media ground by pointing the finger at Serbia as an example and excuse. If by any chance the Russian people, currently deluded by the Ukrainian tragedy, rebel over a lack of freedom or money in their wallets, Putin will be able to say:

“There, what did I tell you, it’s all the doing of the West and its agencies!”

The Russian president for now does not have such problems on the horizon, since he has managed to neutralize the opposition as much as possible, but you never know. After all, Vučić also managed to turn the opposition into a joke, yet still found his throne shaking like never before.

On the other hand, the Kremlin has an interest in reducing the maneuvering space of the Serbian dictator, who they know very well is tied and whose survival depends on Western centers of power, creating constant noise in communication, forcing him to repeatedly justify that he is not a “double agent.”

Had Vučić openly and publicly decided to lead Serbia to the West, politically and militarily, and imposed sanctions on Russia, Putin would have had to back down because he would have had no choice.

As it stands, since Vučić is playing on all sides of the world—on the West, from which he gets money, and on the East, with which he buys votes and the affection of the people—Putin is left with no choice but to play games, issuing statements in which legitimate popular unrest is called a conspiracy of Western powers!

Serbs and Russians, emotions and unrealistic expectations

In that regard, it is naïve even to think that official Moscow only recently learned from the media that Serbia sells weapons to Ukraine. Of course it has known this for a long time, but it waited for the right moment to rub it in Vučić’s face.

Just as it is no coincidence that, out of all of Porfirije’s visit to the Kremlin, Putin’s PR service released precisely the part in which the Serbian patriarch speaks of the “color revolution” and the evil spirit of the West undermining Serbian identity.

The matter is simple in world politics; the only problem lies in our expectations, which are always excessive and colored by emotions.

Great powers—which we never seem to learn, if nothing else then from our own history—have their selfish, short-term interests, for which they are always ready to ignore and trample upon the long-term and vital interests of a people, no matter how much they may sometimes, in touching media outbursts, call them “brothers.”

Of course, this does not change the fact that the Serbian and Russian peoples truly are fraternal, sharing a common faith, Slavic origin, and sentiment.

But the people and the authorities are not the same.

After all, is there a better example of that than Serbia under Vučić’s leadership