After he so pompously attacked Iranian nuclear facilities two days ago, many, including myself, thought that Donald Trump had definitely lost his mind. After all those absurdities about the annexation of Canada, the occupation of Greenland and Panama, the Iranian adventure looked like a confirmed stamp on the American president’s diagnosis.
The only dilemma remained as to what contributed more to Trump’s madness – Israeli donations or innate megalomania?
That is why his announcement on the social network Truth Social, in which he triumphantly announced a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, after Iran had attacked an American base in Qatar only a few hours earlier, seemed so shocking and was met with disbelief, as yet another one of his shows, of which we have seen many in the years behind us.
It turned out that we were wrong and that we had underestimated him.
As I write this, Iran and Israel have officially ceased fire. How long this truce will last remains to be seen, but Trump must already be credited with justifying the title of “king of deals” and deserving a bow to the ground for a political-military-diplomatic-media-marketing game not seen in a long time.
But let’s start in order…
What Trump faced at the beginning of the “film”
I must immediately note that what you are about to read is based partly on available, official and unofficial information, and partly on sound logic and conclusions arising from what I/we all had the opportunity to see from the moment the US, led by Trump, became more actively involved in the Iranian-Israeli conflict.
At the very beginning of the crisis, Trump was faced with several serious problems in keeping his promise to bring peace to the Middle East.
The Israeli offensive in Gaza, relentless shelling of civilian targets, hospitals… on the other hand, Iranian declarative support for Hezbollah to resist Netanyahu and his ethnic cleansing of what remains of Palestine. And finally, the Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, in alleged fear that Iran is on the verge of making an atomic bomb, which is a mantra that Israel has been repeating since Netanyahu and his LIKUD returned to power, more than 15 years ago.
EXTREME MEASURES FOR EXTREME GOALS: Benjamin Netanyahu
In such a situation, to solve the problem, Trump had to knock the arguments out of the hands of both warring parties and reconcile their vanities. To feed all the wolves in Jerusalem and Tehran while at the same time keeping all the sheep counted. Which was not at all easy…
ACT ONE: How to silence Netanyahu
First, he decided to shut Netanyahu up by attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, those buried deep enough that Israeli missiles could not penetrate them.
“Okay, these guys have nowhere and nothing to make an atomic bomb from anymore, so calm down a bit now and stop shooting. And don’t touch the ayatollah, what do you care who rules Iran?!” could have been Trump’s conversation with Netanyahu at the moment when B-2 bombers completed their mission.
This one (Netanyahu) had nothing left but to quickly run in front of the cameras and declare Trump the “leader of the free world” and the “bravest man on the planet.”
Which was not so important to Trump regarding planetary opinion, but it was important for the domestic public, where Los Angeles streets were burning, millions were protesting, the economy was struggling, and his ratings were constantly falling.
But let’s return for a moment to the stealth bombers and attacks on three Iranian nuclear bunkers…
After they were finished and Trump congratulated “American heroes” on television for the successful action, it was striking that at first no one spoke about the consequences, radioactivity, and radiation released from the uranium that Iran was allegedly enriching in those facilities.
Indeed, after some time, the International Atomic Energy Agency announced in a report that no increased radioactivity was observed on the ground…
How is that possible, after bombing three nuclear facilities, with bombs weighing 13,000 kilograms each?
SHOTS INTO EMPTY FACILITIES: No uranium, no damage, no radiation
Simple. There were no atomic energy materials in the Iranian bunkers, because America had warned them in time to move them to safety, which they did.
Trump and America showed their strength on this occasion, and Iran did not suffer any particular damage, if we do not count a little broken concrete and rubble.
ACT TWO: How to save the Ayatollah’s face
But for the Iranian leadership to save face, an agreed response from Tehran to the “American Satan’s” attack had to be included in the package with the American bombing, which would, of course, follow, but more on that later…
Let’s now deviate for a moment from this chronology and peek behind the curtain of American-Iranian relations and negotiations.
In recent days, American media have been circulating a story that Trump wants to overthrow Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and change the radical religious system in the country, and predictions went a step further, saying that the son of Shah Reza Pahlavi, whom the CIA once long ago (1953) brought to the Iranian throne with a coup, could be installed as the head of state.
These writings were partly due to the influence of the Israeli lobby in America, which truly desires these changes in Iran. In part, it turned out to be a good bait and a smokescreen for what was actually happening between the White House and Tehran in recent days.
AGREED TO PLAY THE GAME WITH TRUMP: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Trump, it is now obvious, did not want and does not want to get involved in systemic changes in the only country where the CIA has not managed to install its spies since 1979 – not to mention creating some kind of civil or Islamic opposition to the ruling hegemon.
On the other hand, overthrowing/killing Ali Khamenei himself would be insane, as it would cause a revolt in Iran itself and force the Islamists to close ranks even more, electing a young extremist who, eager to prove himself to the people, would most likely make some rash move, after which everyone would regret it.
On the other hand, there is Khamenei, who has so far proven to be a reliable partner, signing an agreement with Obama in 2016 and incidentally issuing a fatwa for any Iranian who would dare to start making an atomic bomb. No one is writing about this, but his word means a lot to religious and loyal Iranians.
That is why I believe that there were no real hostilities between the US and Iran in this latest escalation, and that the Israelis were probably not entirely aware of what was brewing behind the scenes.
Trump had to appease and protect them as allies, partly because of the lobbies that invested large sums of money in his campaign, as well as the campaigns of many American presidents before him, going back almost 80 years, regardless of whether they were Democrats or Republicans, which in the end cemented that close relationship over time and practically made Israel an American protégé.
ACT THREE: How to save his own (Trump’s) face
Trump faced criticism on the home front that the US was fighting Israeli wars and that the White House was under Jerusalem’s control, but, at least judging by this temporary epilogue, he managed to save face and emerge as the absolute winner of what could be called the first round.
Which brings us back to the events that preceded the ceasefire agreement, and which, lo and behold, followed only a few hours after the Iranian attack on the American Al-Udeid base in Qatar, which would, lo and behold again, turn out to be a mediator in the negotiations between America and Iran and provide the scenery for the episode that would follow.
Iran’s attack was a textbook example of a show for the masses, as it turned out that the base had been abandoned hours before the strike. But that was not enough for the screenwriters of this farce. It was necessary to show military might in this situation as well, so it was reported that all but one Iranian missile were shot down, and that one plowed up the desert not far from the base, so that the Iranians wouldn’t look like complete wimps.
In all this confusion, great care was taken with details, but there were also a few blunders, so the Iranian attack on American bases did not follow the American attack on their facilities, which was logical and expected, but a few days later, when everything was already agreed upon, and just before Trump, all happy and without a trace of revolt over the bombed bases (one had previously been hit by a mortar in Syria), announced the happy news of the ceasefire.
In the meantime, Iran maximumly criticized Israel, to force it with civilian casualties and destruction to more easily agree to the truce that the Iranians and Americans had already established.
And who knows, maybe the Israelis knew the story from beginning to end.
EPILOGUE: TRUMP IS HAPPY, AND THE SHEEP ARE ACCOUNTED FOR!
Trump’s story, for which he deserves an Oscar in at least three categories: for original screenplay, directing, and special effects.
The epilogue, which is more or less a happy ending for all sides, reads:
- Trump kept his election promise, concluded a truce, simultaneously showed his teeth and leadership strength, and established himself as a peacemaker, which will almost certainly restore his fallen ratings by a few percentage points.
- Netanyahu and Israel received guarantees that Iran would not build a nuclear arsenal, which Iran, by all accounts, was not even trying to do. But that’s no longer so important.
- Ali Khamenei maintained power and the system, and did not appear weak in the eyes of his entourage and people, although he realistically lost half of his leadership, both military and intelligence, which makes him a relative loser. But he certainly could have lost much more than he did, so in the end, he can be happy.
Finally, one should certainly not be naive and believe that the conflict in the Middle East has now been resolved. Negotiations on the most difficult topics – Palestine, Gaza, the West Bank – are yet to come, which will be a new major challenge for Trump.
But there is no doubt that he already has a plan.
And if in the continuation of this epic he shows the talent and skill he hinted at in resolving the crisis that many thought was the beginning of World War III, then it should not be surprising if he manages to resolve the conflict that has seemed intractable for decades and actually build those shopping malls he promised in Gaza.
And who knows, maybe in the end he will even get that Nobel Peace Prize and satisfy the ego trip that does not leave him even on the verge of his ninth decade.
Author: Antonije Kovačević Photo: Printscreen X
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